Polymarket sees January US gov’t shutdown odds surge to 77%

Prediction market platform Polymarket is signaling severe pessimism regarding Congress’s ability to pass appropriations bills, driving the probability of a US government shutdown before February 1, 2024, to 77%. This significant surge in odds reflects the growing apprehension on Capitol Hill as lawmakers race against two looming, staggered funding deadlines established by the current continuing resolution (CR).

The first deadline, affecting approximately 20% of federal agencies (including Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and Military Construction), is set for January 19th. The deadline for the remaining government departments, including Defense, Health and Human Services, and the Treasury, follows shortly thereafter on February 2nd.

The heightened probability underscores persistent political gridlock, primarily rooted in the House of Representatives, where hardline Republicans continue to push for steep spending cuts and policy riders, particularly concerning border security, measures that are fiercely opposed by the Democratic-led Senate and the White House. If a full-year spending deal or another short-term CR cannot be brokered before these dates, the US government will face its first major funding lapse of the fiscal year.

Source: Polymarket sees January US gov’t shutdown odds surge to 77%