Next Bitcoin accumulation phase may hinge on credit stress timing: Data

The commencement of Bitcoin’s (BTC) next sustained accumulation phase appears increasingly correlated with the timing and magnitude of a significant global credit stress event, rather than purely internal BTC supply metrics like the Halving. Analysis suggests that major BTC price pivots, which define the end of bear markets and the start of prolonged accumulation, historically coincide with shifts in central bank liquidity policy, often triggered by systemic credit strains.

Bitcoin, despite its decentralized nature, functions as a high-beta risk asset, highly sensitive to overall market liquidity. When global credit conditions tighten—as evidenced by widening high-yield spreads, declining bank lending standards, or increased corporate defaults—risk assets suffer. Conversely, a policy pivot (e.g., rate cuts or quantitative easing) in response to crisis is the primary catalyst for liquidity flowing back into digital assets.

Currently, major economies are grappling with the effects of multi-year high interest rates, leading to steadily building pressure in credit markets. Corporate debt refinancing is becoming prohibitively expensive, and metrics such as the effective federal funds rate remaining above 5% continue to restrict capital availability. While stress indicators are elevated, they have not yet peaked decisively enough to force a major, immediate central bank pivot (i.e., a series of deep rate cuts).

Data indicates that the most aggressive post-bear market accumulation cycles—such as those following the March 2020 liquidity shock—were preceded by rapid, forced government intervention to ease credit stress. Until the current building credit pressure results in a sharp, undeniable crisis (a ‘credit crunch’), forcing monetary authorities to inject liquidity, the market may remain in a prolonged, choppy range. The timing of this breaking point—the peak of the credit stress cycle—will likely be the definitive trigger for capital to seek out high-growth, scarce assets like Bitcoin, signaling the start of the next major accumulation phase.

Source: Next Bitcoin accumulation phase may hinge on credit stress timing: Data