Illicit actors capture nearly 3% of crypto liquidity in 2025: TRM

TRM Labs, a leading blockchain intelligence firm, has released a sobering projection indicating that illicit actors are set to capture nearly 3% of total global cryptocurrency liquidity by the end of 2025. This figure, while seemingly marginal, represents a massive escalation in the dollar value laundered and utilized by organized crime, sanctioned entities, and state-sponsored hacking groups within the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

The projection contrasts sharply with previous years, where advanced chain analysis tools helped keep the identified percentage of illicit funds linked to centralized exchange activity lower. However, TRM’s analysis suggests two critical drivers behind the projected 2025 spike: the increasing sophistication of mixing services (especially those operating cross-chain) and the sustained exploitation of security vulnerabilities within nascent DeFi protocols.

According to the report’s methodology, ‘liquidity capture’ encompasses funds derived from ransomware payments, sanctions evasion, drug trafficking, scam proceeds (including pig butchering scams), and funds moved through unregulated peer-to-peer (P2P) networks and newly adopted decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) without robust Know Your Customer (KYC) or Anti-Money Laundering (AML) controls.

The economic implications are staggering. Given projections placing global crypto market volume well into the multi-trillion-dollar range, a 3% capture rate means tens of billions of dollars could be flowing into the hands of hostile actors, significantly undermining global financial security efforts.

Regulators and financial institutions are urged to treat this prediction as a critical call to action. TRM recommends immediate investment in real-time cross-chain monitoring tools, harmonization of global stablecoin regulations, and establishing clear liability frameworks for protocols that fail to implement baseline security and identity verification measures, particularly concerning funds flowing from high-risk jurisdictions. Failure to adapt compliance infrastructure rapidly could see the 2025 projection become a baseline rather than a peak.

Source: Illicit actors capture nearly 3% of crypto liquidity in 2025: TRM