Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ moment might start in February: Here’s why

While October has traditionally been dubbed “Uptober” due to historical Q4 performance, 2024 presents a structural anomaly that suggests the true kick-off of sustained upward momentum will occur in February. This timing shift is primarily driven by the post-approval volatility of the U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the strict timeline of the upcoming Halving event.

### 1. The January Washout and ETF Reaccumulation

The approval of 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early January triggered a classic “sell the news” event. This downturn was significantly amplified by massive outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as investors rotated funds or liquidated holdings. This institutional arbitrage and profit-taking served as a necessary market wash-out, successfully shaking out speculative leverage and setting a fresh foundation. As this arbitrage dynamic stabilizes—expected by late Q1—the sustained, cumulative inflows from the new ETFs will begin to dominate market structure, acting as a relentless upward pressure starting late February.

### 2. The Pre-Halving Rally Window

The most compelling cyclical argument points to the Halving, estimated to occur in mid-to-late April 2024. The Halving is a crucial supply shock, and historically, it is preceded by a “pre-halving rally” that typically initiates 60 to 90 days before the actual event. This rally is fueled by forward-looking investors pricing in the future scarcity. Counting backward 60 to 90 days from an April Halving places the beginning of this critical accumulation window squarely in mid-to-late February 2024. Waiting for the actual event often means missing the most reliable early phase of the cycle.

### 3. Clearing Institutional Hurdles

Unlike retail traders, institutional funds often require several weeks or months post-product launch to complete compliance, due diligence, and capital allocation processes. The major influx of institutional capital into the new ETF products, beyond the initial seed money, is forecast to accelerate significantly in February and March, providing fundamental buying pressure once initial market volatility has settled.

### Conclusion

February serves as the structural and cyclical inflection point. It marks the expected end of the initial ETF-induced volatility and the beginning of the crucial pre-halving accumulation phase. For these reasons, the powerful, sustained upward trend typically associated with the crypto market’s best months is highly likely to manifest in the middle of Q1 2024, making February the real ‘Uptober’ of this cycle.

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