Bitcoin Crash Could Deepen to $38K, Say Analysts—Here’s Why

Following weeks of volatility and a failure to decisively hold the crucial $60,000 support level, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of significant uncertainty. Prominent market analysts are now issuing stark warnings, suggesting the price could tumble toward the $38,000 mark—a level not seen since late 2023. This bearish outlook is predicated on a confluence of weakening technical indicators, shifting macroeconomic sentiment, and depleted market leverage.

Technically, the immediate concern is the definitive break below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the primary psychological support at $58,000 fails to hold, technical analysis models point to cascading support levels. The $38,000 target specifically aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent significant bull run. This level historically serves as a common area for a comprehensive market reset and liquidity grab before any potential recovery.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the primary headwind is the Federal Reserve’s stance of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Increased rates reduce the appeal of high-risk assets like cryptocurrency, favoring the dollar and traditional safe-havens. Furthermore, the pace of inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs has dramatically slowed, removing a major source of sustained buying pressure that characterized the first quarter of the year.

Market structure also poses a risk. While the recent sell-off cleared some overleveraged positions, the market remains fragile. Analysts fear that continued downward momentum could trigger large-scale liquidations of long positions opened between $40,000 and $50,000, creating a massive cascade of forced selling that would accelerate the decline toward the $38,000 floor. Until institutional demand reasserts itself, the risk of testing this lower boundary remains substantial.

Source: Bitcoin Crash Could Deepen to $38K, Say Analysts—Here’s Why