Bitcoin (BTC) has recently sustained a breach of its critical long-term technical indicator, the 200-day moving average (MA), in a move that analysts categorize as more aggressive than the immediate market shocks experienced during both the November 2022 FTX collapse and the March 2020 COVID-19 induced crash. The current descent below the 200-day MA is notable not only for its magnitude but also for its velocity, setting a new historical precedent for negative momentum relative to this key trend line.
The 200-day MA is widely utilized as the technical demarcation between a long-term bull market and a cyclical bear environment. While previous capitulation events—such as the infamous ‘Black Thursday’ of 2020—saw steep intraday drops, those instances often resulted in swift, albeit volatile, recoveries back toward the long-term average. During the FTX implosion, Bitcoin was already trading significantly below its 200-day MA, mitigating the comparative impact of the news on the metric itself.
In contrast, the recent move represents a structural rejection of support, establishing a sustained distance below the 200-day MA that has surpassed historical precedents established during prior high-profile crises. Technical data suggests the percentage deviation below the 200-day MA is now at a level not observed since the deep bear market bottoming phases of 2018, signaling significant capitulation among long-term holders. This breakdown indicates a decisive shift in market structure, moving investor focus entirely toward establishing a reliable floor and away from immediate price recovery.
Source: Bitcoin beats FTX, COVID-19 crash with record dive below 200-day trend line
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