The cryptocurrency market is preparing for one of its most significant volatility events this quarter: the expiration of approximately $10.8 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts, primarily concentrated on platforms like Deribit and CME. This massive notional value represents a major clearing event that is expected to significantly impact short-term price action once finalized this Friday.
Historically, large options expiries often result in temporary price suppression and range-bound trading leading up to the event, a phenomenon known as the ‘Max Pain’ effect, as market makers hedge their enormous exposures. Once these hedging constraints are lifted, the market structure is often freed to move decisively in the path of least resistance.
For bulls, the hope is that the expiration will serve as a catalyst for a sustained upward momentum, potentially unlocking the next phase of the bull run. Many of the expiring call options were set at high strike prices (Out-of-the-Money), and their elimination removes substantial sell-side hedging pressure from counterparties who previously kept the price anchored. This de-risking event could facilitate renewed aggressive buying.
The ambitious target of $95,000 would require bulls to rapidly overcome crucial resistance zones between $72,000 and $75,000, establishing a new all-time high and entering a true price discovery phase. Analysts suggest that maintained institutional ETF inflows and strong technical support (ideally above the $65,000 level) are crucial prerequisites for testing $95K. Should the post-expiry rally fail to materialize, however, a swift retreat toward $60,000 remains a distinct risk, negating the immediate high-side aspirations.
Source: $10.8B in Bitcoin options expire this week: Will bulls chase $95K after expiry?
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