CoinShares, the digital asset investment manager, has issued a detailed report minimizing the perceived existential threat that quantum computing poses to the Bitcoin network, arguing that previous estimates of vulnerability have been significantly exaggerated. The firm concludes that only a minute fraction of the total circulating supply is currently susceptible to quantum attacks.
According to the analysis, approximately 10,200 BTC are currently held in addresses where the private keys could theoretically be compromised by an advanced quantum computer utilizing Shor’s algorithm. This highly specific subset of vulnerability relates almost entirely to legacy Public Key Hash (P2PKH) addresses whose public keys have already been exposed by previous transactions, leaving them open to exploitation before any further transaction confirmation.
CoinShares emphasizes that the widespread narrative of Bitcoin’s total supply being at imminent risk is flawed. The vast majority of Bitcoin, particularly that held in modern address formats such as SegWit (P2WPKH) and Taproot (P2TR), is significantly safer. In these newer standards, the public key is only revealed at the moment funds are being spent, offering only a brief and narrow window for a quantum attack. This mechanism substantially mitigates the threat compared to legacy addresses.
Furthermore, the report notes that even for the 10,200 potentially compromised BTC, a successful attack requires a fully operational quantum computer of sufficient scale and stability—technology that remains years away from being commercially viable. By providing this grounded perspective, CoinShares aims to reassure investors that the necessary post-quantum cryptographic upgrades can be developed and implemented across the Bitcoin ecosystem well before the technology capable of mass exploitation becomes a reality.
Source: CoinShares says only 10,200 BTC face real quantum risk, pushing back on ‘overblown’ estimates
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