Will Bitcoin rebound to $90K by March? Here’s what BTC options say

Following a period of intense volatility and consolidation after its recent highs, investor focus has aggressively shifted toward Bitcoin’s near-term potential. The $90,000 price point by March 2024 represents an aggressive milestone that, if achieved, would confirm a deeply bullish sentiment dominating the market. To assess the probability of this outcome, we must turn to the derivatives market, specifically the structure of Bitcoin options contracts set to expire in March.

**Open Interest (OI) Analysis for March Expiry**

The distribution of Open Interest (OI) across the major exchanges (CME, Deribit, etc.) provides a clear picture of where institutional money is placing its bets. For the March expiry, substantial OI remains concentrated in the intermediate strike prices, particularly between $75,000 and $85,000. These levels represent the high-probability targets based on current momentum and technical analysis, suggesting a strong consensus for reaching new all-time highs, but potentially stalling before the $90K mark.

While the $90,000 strike does attract notable attention—often referred to as a ‘call wall’—the volume there serves two primary purposes: speculation by retail traders betting on a parabolic move, and institutional hedging by miners or large holders looking to cap their potential upside returns in exchange for protection. Crucially, the density of OI at $90K is thinner compared to the immediate targets below it, indicating that major traders view it as a lower-probability, high-reward scenario, rather than a strong consensus forecast.

**Implied Volatility and Skew**

Implied Volatility (IV) for the March contracts remains elevated. This high IV reflects general market uncertainty and the potential for sudden, large price swings—a characteristic often associated with pre-Halving cycles and intense macroeconomic scrutiny (e.g., CPI reports and Fed commentary). Crucially, the volatility skew (the relative pricing difference between puts and calls) favors calls, suggesting that the market is willing to pay a premium for upside participation compared to downside protection.

However, when analyzing the skew for far out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, the premium paid for the $90K strike does not overwhelmingly dominate the curve. This tells us the market is generally bullish and anticipates a successful rally past $80K, but it discounts the likelihood of a straight, uninhibited climb to $90K within the next six weeks.

**Conclusion: Probability and Catalysts**

Based on the current options structure, the market strongly believes Bitcoin will continue its bullish trajectory, likely setting new highs and testing resistance in the $80,000 to $85,000 range by March. However, the probability priced into the options market does not yet fully support an aggressive rebound to $90,000 within this tight timeframe.

Achieving the $90,000 target by March would require a potent external catalyst, such as unexpected regulatory clarity, massive and sustained ETF inflows far exceeding current rates, or an aggressive shift toward monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Without such a shock event, the options data suggests that the aggressive $90K target is more likely to be achieved in the Q2 period following consolidation.

Source: Will Bitcoin rebound to $90K by March? Here’s what BTC options say