Recent findings derived from various alternative data providers suggest a significant and accelerating disinflationary trend in the U.S., potentially outpacing the deceleration indicated by official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI reports. This divergence creates mounting uncertainty for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. While official headline and core CPI figures have moderated, leading indicators focusing on real-time market dynamics point to a sharp cooling, particularly within the crucial shelter component. Private indices tracking new lease agreements—such as those published by Zillow and Apartment List—show median asking rents have declined substantially year-over-year, a reality that has yet to be fully reflected in the official CPI calculation due to the methodological lag inherent in calculating Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). OER, which accounts for approximately 30% of the overall CPI basket, typically takes 9 to 12 months to incorporate spot market changes. Furthermore, alternative high-frequency metrics monitoring used vehicle transaction prices and supply chain bottlenecks indicate faster normalization than government figures suggest. Analysts utilizing these ‘shadow statistics’ predict that if the current market dynamics persist, the official core CPI rate could fall close to the Fed’s 2% target much sooner than current projections anticipate. The ensuing policy uncertainty centers on the Fed’s required reliance on backward-looking official data versus the strong forward guidance provided by these alternative metrics. Continuing an aggressive posture based on lagging CPI signals risks overtightening and triggering an avoidable economic downturn, forcing the central bank to weigh the risk of being perceived as reacting too slowly against the risk of preemptively declaring victory over inflation based on unofficial data.
Source: Alternative inflation data shows sharp cooling in US CPI amid Fed uncertainty
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