‘Bitcoin trade is over,’ Bloomberg strategist says in 2026 macro outlook

The latest 2026 Macro Outlook published by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) features a stark assessment of the cryptocurrency market, encapsulated by the quote, “The Bitcoin trade is over.” The senior commodity and macro strategist argues that the asset has crossed a critical threshold, transitioning from a highly volatile speculative instrument to a mature, recognized global macro asset.

This declaration doesn’t signify Bitcoin’s demise, but rather the conclusion of the asset’s hyper-growth, high-leverage phase characteristic of the 2017 and 2021 cycles. According to the report, the massive influx of regulated spot ETFs, coupled with tightening global regulatory frameworks and increased corporate adoption, has fundamentally sanitized the market. The strategist highlights that accessibility through traditional financial rails has eliminated many of the inefficiencies that previously allowed for massive speculative arbitrage and rapid exponential returns.

Looking toward 2026, the strategist suggests Bitcoin’s primary utility will shift firmly into the realm of wealth preservation and macroeconomic hedging. It is now viewed less as a high-risk tech stock and more as a digital store of value, directly competing with instruments like physical gold and long-duration government bonds. Volatility is expected to compress significantly, moving closer to that of established indices, thereby eliminating the high-stakes trading opportunities that defined its early history.

The report posits that the asset is now firmly in its institutional accumulation phase. Future price appreciation, while expected, will be driven by slow, steady adoption and institutional allocation mandates rather than sudden liquidity surges or retail euphoria. For investors, this means adjusting expectations: Bitcoin’s future returns will increasingly mirror those of highly mature, globally integrated assets, signifying the definitive end of its retail-driven speculative infancy.

Source: ‘Bitcoin trade is over,’ Bloomberg strategist says in 2026 macro outlook